Are Mexicans Progressives Now?

Guest Opinion for The Latino Newsletter

The Mexico Political Economist covers Mexican politics for global readers. It is a paid Substack newsletter. You can subscribe here.

As analysts continued to pick apart Mexico’s opposition after its disastrous showing in the country’s recent presidential election, one political scientist came to a simple conclusion. One that might seem obvious in a country where a left-wing party now reigns supreme after winning two presidential races in a row.

Viri Ríos posited on a podcast that it’s not that the defeated parties had lost because they’d lost their way and needed to re-establish themselves on the right; it's that those political positions were no longer tenable in Mexico.

Her argument was compelling: People had voted for the PAN, Mexico’s traditional right wing party, twice in a row starting starting in 2000 because it represented an anti-PRI alternative. This was the PRI that governed the country for most of the 20th century as a one-party state, so of course people wanted change. Ríos finished by saying that, save for a few genuinely staunchly conservative areas of central Mexico, the country was sick of the right.

It's a conclusion that might shock longtime Mexico watchers who for decades were told that Mexico is a deeply conservative country. Things have clearly changed, the question is have Mexicans really shifted leftward definitively in the space of six years?

Weren’t Mexican Conservatives?

Glancing at a Pew Research poll in August 2015 is like gazing into an alternate universe: 

“The conservative National Action Party (PAN) is viewed positively by just 29%, while the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) gets even lower marks (23% favorable).” The PRD was the party that brought López Obrador to prominence yet, under its banner, the current President never got a national vote greater than just over 35%. His new party, Morena, and its allies got close to 60% this year.

Purportedly, López Obrador was purged by his break with the PRD and his founding of Morena allowed him to reset the left. However, as the party system geared towards the center right that had governed Mexico for decades fell apart, Morena actually became a catch-all party. One that was able to better represent a broader swath of Mexicans by turning more conservative itself.

The Mexico Political Economist has already argued that to call president Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Morena “left-wing” is a stretch. Indeed, Mexico’s weakling far-right really only criticizes the President for not going far enough on current policy. Meanwhile, the rest of the opposition continues to lick its wounds or indulge in conspiracy theories.

Perhaps then, the country’s recent embrace of a party labeled as left-wing may have simply been the result of it being the last ideology standing. Here the United States and the Mexican political experience stateside presents an interesting counter-factual as to why this may well be the case.

Mexican-American Conservatism 

Presidents Bush Sr. and Jr. both conceived of Mexicans as key Republican constituents in waiting. Even as the anti-immigrant sentiment that led to Donald Trump grew, Mexicans in the United States continued to prove that they would shift to the right if given the chance.

As recently as the 2020 elections, one of the biggest swings toward Donald Trump in the last election was along the south Texas borderlands. Zapata County swung by 40 points to elect Trump that year. Yet, while Mexican-Americans across the U.S. similarly turned Republican, many of these very same people simultaneously broke heavily for López Obrador.

If seen on a simply left-right spectrum this might seem contradictory. When seen through a different metric things begin to make more sense.

Neither Seen Nor Heard

In extremely unequal societies —like Mexico’s or south Texas’— and in the absence of rule of law, citizen’s interactions with the State tend to be overwhelmingly negative experiences. This is especially true for poor or remote areas. To many of these voters, when the government comes bearing gifts, it is seen as an unexpected and pleasant change. In Trump’s case, this took the shape of pandemic-era stimulus checks. In López Obrador’s case, it came in the form of social programs.

Beyond this, to many, the government is best neither seen nor heard. In large cities, where the State is ever present, many Mexicans’ reaction is to push back.

Political rebellion takes many forms. The states harboring Mexico’s second and third metropolises are governed by opposition parties. Even Mexico City, which recently elected a Morena mayor, is less of a sure bet for Morena than it would initially seem.

Alfredo Ávila, a historian from Mexico’s National University (UNAM), summarizes how the core ideology of Mexico City’s denizens is political rebellion. In the 19th century, if the country went Liberal the capital broke for conservatism. In the 20th century, when the ruling one-party apparatus turned right, the city went on to elect a series of left-wing mayors.

Just this May, as he sensed his party slipping in the polls in the capital compared to the rest of the country, López Obrador claimed that Mexico City “is becoming more conservative.”

One could partially attribute the opposition’s poor choice of candidate and terrible campaign for the close-ish race. Look to the 2021 midterms though (which voters saw as more of a referendum on the government) and Morena got a walloping.

From this vantage point, the conclusion might be stranger than Ríos’ proposition: Mexicans aren’t more left-wing than they were before. Neither are the more conservative. After centuries of inequality, repression, and bad government, they are happy to get back what they have paid into the system in the form of social programs while otherwise hoping the State will just get out of their way. 

It is a philosophy reminiscent of one espoused by Philippe Van Parijs, the Belgian political economist, who supported an unconditional minimum wage along with a light touch State in all other aspects—Socialist Libertarianism. 

Or perhaps Mexicans just want tangible results.

Something for the opposition should keep in mind as it embarks on abstract professions about the lofty ideals that bely the hallowed foundations of the division of political power in Mexico; all while the government hands out cash.

About the Author

The Mexico Political Economist: Mexican politics without the politicking.

_{The Latino Newsletter welcomes opinion pieces in English and/or Spanish from community voices. You can email them to our publisher, Julio Ricardo Varela. The views expressed by outside opinion contributors do not necessarily reflect the editorial views of this outlet.}