New Latino Voter Poll: Harris Has 28-Point Lead Over Trump

Happy Wednesday to the 677 of you who have already subscribed to The Latino Newsletter. Signing up is free, and there are no firewalls. If you would like to make a tax-deductible donation to keep this effort going, you can do so here.

A new UnidosUS poll released Wednesday morning of 3,000 Latino eligible voters says that Vice President Kamala Harris has a 28-point lead over Donald Trump with the country’s largest ethnic voting cohort. The poll was conducted from August 5-23. (Cross-tabs are here.)

According to a presentation deck made public during a Wednesday morning press call, Harris has 59% of national Latino support to Trump’s 31%. (The poll noted that 10% of respondents are undecided or are choosing someone else besides Harris and Trump.)

That accounts for a 28-point advantage, a 7-point gain from the 59%-38% advantage Joe Biden had with Latino voters in 2020, according to a 2021 Pew Research study of validated voters. It is also a significant increase from previous polls when Biden was still in the race, although the 59% support is not at the historical mid-60% exit poll ranges for Democratic candidates and Latinos.

In swing states, the poll has Harris leading Trump with Latinos by 29 points in Arizona, 31 points in Georgia, 23 points in Nevada, 29 points in North Carolina and 35 points in Pennsylvania. Harris also holds an 8-point advantage with Latino independents, a 36-point lead with Latinas and 19 points with Latino voters between 18 and 29 years old.

Other findings from the presentation include the following:

Top issues continue to be dominated by pocketbook and economic concerns.

• #1 Inflation: Food and basic necessities, housing/rent, and gasoline are the principal worries regarding inflation

• #2 Jobs and economy: Jobs with better pay and concerns about job security top other job/economic concerns

• #3 Housing: Concerns about costs have spiked, now a top concern across the country (not just California and Florida)

• #4 Healthcare: the costs of insurance and prescription medication are the driving concern for Latino voters

On immigration, a path to citizenship continues to be top priorities.

• Latino voters STRONGLY favor a path to citizenship for long-residing undocumented immigrants and Dreamers; of the top 4 priorities, three relate to path to citizenship and protecting long-residing undocumented immigrants

• With respect to enforcement, the priority is cracking down on human smugglers and drug traffickers (#2 overall; increasing border security is #5).

• Minimal support for any mass deportation plan.

On abortion, by a 71% to 21% margin, Latinos oppose making it illegal or taking that decision away from others, no matter their own personal beliefs on the issue.

On priority issues overall, Democrats are trusted over Republicans. However, more than a quarter of Latino voters do not see either as a champion of their concerns, with 28% saying neither, both, or don’t know which party would be better at addressing their priority issue.

The poll was conducted by BSP Research. One of its co-founders conducts polling for the Harris campaign.

For the full presentation of the poll, you can access it here. The official press release is here.

NBC News reported that the UnidosUS poll had Harris with a greater lead over Trump (64%-30%) among Spanish-speaking Latinos than English-speaking Latinos (51%38%). Bilingual respondents gave Harris a 54%-33% advantage over Trump.

Editor’s Note: During the Wednesday press call after the publication of this post, UnidosUS said the net Harris support is a 27.45-point spread, based on decimal support: Harris 58.73, Trump 31.28.

What We’re Reading

What’s Happening in Aurora and Chicago: Welcome to the 2024 election cycle in the United States, where it will be easy for those to claim that the country is being overrun by Venezuelan gangs.

It all started with this last week out of Aurora, Colorado:

As you can imagine, social media has been active, to say the least about this. Yet, if you are actually following the story and listening to (wait for it), the people who are living in the Aurora complex.

There are plenty of tweets and posts that dispute it all:

Then there is this from Chicago: “Elon Musk and some prominent right-wing social media accounts widely circulated claims that dozens of migrants with guns and motorcycles ‘took over’ a South Side apartment. The claim was bogus, police, neighbors and the area’s alderperson said.”

Here is what one resident had to say (explicit language warning):

Do you believe in creating new journalism lanes for Latinos and Latinas? Do you believe that U.S. mainstream outlets will never understand our community? Consider donating to The Latino Newsletter. Any little bit helps to keep this newsletter free and accessible to all. ¡Gracias mil!