Mexico’s Role in the World

Opinion for The Latino Newsletter

Editor’s Note: The Mexico Political Economist covers Mexican politics for global readers. It is a reader-supported Substack newsletter. You can subscribe here. The following is an edited version of a piece published by the site.

So much has changed in Mexico. It is undergoing a political, social, and economic upheaval as hasn’t been witnessed in decades if not over a century. Whether it comes out of this turbulent transition during these turbulent times globally will either position the country as an example to be followed or a cautionary tale to be avoided.

The Mexico Political Economist has traced this journey since last March, and with a new year beginning, it’s a time to reflect on where Mexico stands.

Can it reasonably aspire to grow on the world stage or if it is destined to stagnation and mediocrity?

Darkness at Home

For years now, the term “Mexicanization” has been used as a slur. The Pope used it to describe increasing violence in Argentina. Former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, however, didn’t go out of his way to promote Mexico’s image abroad like previous governments had. Mexico couldn’t be a shining light abroad while darkness reigned within, he’d quip—“candil en la calle, oscuridad en casa.”

At first glance, things don’t look too promising. In the first half of the year The Mexico Political Economist published much about the talk of nearshoring investments that never came to pass.

That untold riches failed to materialize underscored how Mexico couldn’t just rest on its laurels. From high-tech ventures to a stillborn wine industry, The Mexico Political Economist covered how an absence of industrial policy lay at the heart of many of the country’s unfulfilled promises. Our report on Cancún highlighted how one of Mexico’s greatest triumphs was the result of the government taking advantage of a moment in geopolitics and seizing the opportunity.

Yet, not all industrial policy or government intervention is created equally. President Claudia Sheinbaum insists that she will make a tourist train that passes through Cancún a world-class attraction. This is laudable but not nearly enough. Mexico is already and by far Latin America’s greatest tourist destination. Investments in building up an already established industry may well result in a case of diminishing returns as environmental and social tensions from crowded destinations rise. The devastation of the Yucatán Peninsula’s jungle and the expulsion of locals to make way for Airbnb speculators are just two examples of bulldozer development gone wrong.

Ambition and the willingness to explore other developmental climes is still missing.

Alongside its touristic muscle, Mexico also stands out globally for its commercial prowess. Yet for the past years there has been a certain vacuity in being an exporting powerhouse. The integration into North America’s supply chains have turned Mexico into one of the world’s great exporters, but at home the benefits have been mixed at best.

And now, after Mexico put all its eggs in the export-led basket, the United States may yet pull the rug from under the country via tariffs and the elimination of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement on which more than 80% of Mexico’s exports depend.

The Sheinbaum government has made it clear that it is willing to kowtow to U.S. demands to avoid this from happening. Mexico has consequently taken on a new role on the world stage: That of North American migration enforcer.

Despite the rhetoric coming from president-elect Donald Trump saying otherwise, Mexico has created an increasingly tough barrier for migrants from all over the world to pass. As discussed in our report on the National Guard, Mexico has deployed its armed forces to stop millions from reaching the U.S. In just the past few months, Colombians and Egyptians have been shot and killed. Chinese nationals have been arbitrarily locked up. Haitians, Afghanis, and Ghanans wait in crowded Mexican camps.

It would be a shame if this were what Mexico was remembered for globally.

Left-Wing Bastion in a Right-Wing World

There are a few innovative, promising, and potentially risky things happening in Mexico which could potentially turn it into a global example to follow.

1. Mexican Humanism

In October of 2024, The Mexico Political Economist described how the government under López Obrador had created a new ideology to define itself. Mexican Humanism, as it was called, is inconsistent, vague, and confusing. It is also a promising sketch of what Mexico could represent—if it isn’t botched by its government.

On the promising end of the spectrum, the election of Sheinbaum as Mexico’s first woman president has made the country influential on its own. (The world’s fourth most powerful woman, according to Forbes.) Whether this “women’s moment” benefits women across the country remains to be seen. Encouraging first steps in terms of gender-based economic and social justice stand out. These include Sheinbaum’s older women’s pensions and the creation of a dedicated Women’s Ministry.

On the more worrying side of things, Mexico’s judicial reform promises to make a global example of itself for good or ill. It will soon become the first major country to directly elect all of its judges and magistrates, from the lowest local court to the country’s Supreme Court.

Beyond the discussions surrounding the issues with Mexico’s current judicial system and the benefits of direct democracy, it would seem the government is determined to make a shambles of this groundbreaking reform. From the moment it was passed (with close coverage by The Mexico Political Economist), the entire legislative process has tarnished the judicial reform with dirty tricks, poor legislation, and opacity.

2. Green Party, Red Herring

Another platform Mexico could potentially make its name on is that of environmental policy.

Sheinbaum already shines on the global stage on this front thanks to her effective communication to the world that she is an environmental scientist. But the government must soon go beyond posturing.

In Mexico, you don’t always get what it says on the tin. Labels can be misleading, as was made clear in our report on the Mexican Green Party, which is more a family business than an environmentalist movement. The same can be said of the policy Sheinbaum has chosen to be her signature on the world stage: The well-meaning, green sounding Sembrando Vida (Planting Life) programm, which subsidizes tree-planting but which in fact encourages deforestation.

Green industrial policy and environmental governance is one of Mexico’s most unsung and most squandered opportunities. In April of 2024, Luis Godoy, a former Mexican official, lamented to The Mexico Political Economist that “Mexico does not represent anything in this post-neoliberal age” even though, he added, it is particularly well positioned for climate leadership in a multipolar age.

3. Economic Justice

Ultimately, the most promising policies currently being laid out by the Mexican government have to do with an innovative approach to redistribution.

As laid out in our piece on the budget, Sheinbaum has made it clear that most of the government will be subjected to austerity. Mexico cannot fall out of the good graces of its international lenders if it is to boost its economic growth while achieving a more equitable economic situation for its citizens.

Austerity gives political breathing space to progressive redistributive policies. These include the aggressive increases of the minimum wage as well as a generous slate of social programmes that have both boosted the domestic market and made the government enormously popular.

If Sheinbaum can stick the landing on the delicate tightrope of fiscal discipline and aggressive redistribution, then perhaps Mexico has a chance of being mentioned in far off lands as a model to be followed.

An eventful 2025 awaits.

About the Author

The Mexico Political Economist: Mexican politics without the politicking.

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