A 2024 Preliminary Latino Vote Analysis You Can't Ignore

The team at Equis Research published a Friday preliminary analysis of the 2024 Latino vote that uses precinct-level data to begin breaking down where Latino voters were during this election cycle.

The analysis contains six takeaways that are required reading for all who follow Latinos and electoral politics.

Although brief, the analysis contains significant heft and depth to what the data is saying so far.

Here is just a sampling from the analysis:

• Trump’s Latino support will be at least 13 points higher in 2024 than it was in 2016 (from ~30% to ~43-48%). ‍The realignment may be unique to Trump… but functionally it doesn’t matter as the Trump Era continues.

• ‍Clearly the “garbage” “joke” about Puerto Rico at Trump’s notorious Madison Square Garden rally, which garnered much attention and even drew Bad Bunny into the fray, was not enough to overcome other Democratic disadvantages, and/or came too late to turn around results. 

• Across major senate races, Senate Republicans under-performed Trump in densely Hispanic areas.

Click on this link to read the entire analysis.

As for future data dives, the Equis team noted the following, “As of November 15, we are still waiting for the entirety of the results. There are two huge missing pieces of the puzzle: Nevada, which insists on making us wait longer than anyone else for precinct results, and California, which is still counting.

From there, to truly understand the outcomes of this election, we will have to wait for voter files to come back from the states, which will give us a better read on who turned out, and for the Catalist and Pew analyses that will follow.

And stay tuned for further post-mortem analysis from Equis in 2025.”

On Monday, Carlos Odio, one of Equis’ co-founders, was already sharing more about Nevada:

Politico Story Details Trump’s Immigration Policy

On Monday morning, Politico published a very detailed story about President-elect Donald Trump’s first 100 days and what this means for immigration policy.

These are the first two grafs of the piece:

In his first 100 days, President-elect Donald Trump plans to begin the process of deporting hundreds of thousands of people. He is expected to end parole for people from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. And he is likely to undo a policy that significantly constrained deportations for people who weren’t deemed threats to public safety or national security.

Trump’s team is already thinking about how to craft executive actions aimed to withstand the legal challenges from immigrants’ rights groups — all in hopes of avoiding an early defeat like the one his 2017 travel ban targeting majority-Muslim nations suffered. This time, Trump may have friendlier arbiters. These fights will be refereed by a federal judiciary that he transformed during his first term, including by appointing more than 200 federal judges himself. And at the very top — the ultimate decider of these questions — is the Supreme Court, to which he appointed three conservative justices.

There is a lot to unpack here. It all feels unchartered right now.

What We’re Listening to

This Local Expert Is Not Surprised: On Sunday, I was on Callie Crossley’s “Under the Radar” GBH show, talking about (wait for it) Latino voters and the 2024 election.

Here is part of what I said (let me know what you think):

“Latinos have always been more politically independent—conservative-lite,” Varela said. “I’ve talked to hundreds of voters over the years. I’ve been in contact with so many Latino organizations over the years. This is a moment. Latino vote 1.0 is over. We are now in Latino vote 2.0.”

And here is what fellow guest Esmy Jimenez of The Boston Globe said:

“Not only are we not a monolith, we’re actually a huge kaleidoscope of people,” Jimenez said. “And to ever try to get down to one minute of just political talk is just not the way to do it at all. And in fact, the best way to probably engage with people from different walks of life —that are 65 million people in the United States— is with some nuance and reflecting through the different needs of each community.”

What We’re Reading

Latino Exit Polls: Suzanne Gamboa of NBC News filed a deeply reported story about last week’s American Electorate Poll and its findings about Latino voters.

About the Author

Julio Ricardo Varela is the founder and interim publisher of The Latino Newsletter.

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