This Surprising Issue Would Earn the Support of Latino Voters

Opinion for The Latino Newsletter

The most exciting moments at the 2024 Olympics featured agonizingly close contests, decided by whiskers. Most political observers expect something similar from the political races that will soon determine control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives.

Partisans are scrapping for every competitive edge in the quest for a narrow victory. Both red and blue teams are thus seeking support from the Latino community’s more than 33 million eligible voters, nearly 4 million of whom live in the seven swing states that are likely to decide the Presidential election. In two of those states (Arizona and Nevada), more than 20% of eligible voters are Latino.

These facts make it hard to understand both campaigns’ neglect of health care, which the New York Times recently termed “The Campaign Issue That Isn’t.”

Like other voters, Latinos prioritize the high cost of living (including the high cost of health care and housing), along with jobs, gun violence, immigration, and abortion. But UnidosUS’ August 2024 poll of 3,000 Latino voters unearthed an unexpected finding: the #1 dealbreaker for Latino voters involves health care.

If a candidate proposes major cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, or other health programs, that one fact alone will lead nearly a third of Latino voters to immediately reject the candidate—more than with any other issue.

This prioritization is understandable. Such cuts would devastate Hispanic communities across America. In 2022, 18 million Latinos relied on Medicaid for their health care. And more than 4 million Latinos now buy health coverage in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace, using Premium Tax Credits that help working and middle-class people afford coverage.

These health care programs could come crashing down under proposals made by Republicans, past and present. When he was President, Donald Trump made it a top priority to “repeal and replace” the ACA. His legislation would have ended Medicaid and ACA health care for more than 25 million people, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. That attempt ultimately failed by a single vote in the Senate. But in the recent Presidential debate, Mr. Trump seemed ready to try again, even though he has only a “concept of a plan” for the law’s replacement.

Major cuts to Medicaid and ACA health coverage have also been proposed by the Republican-led House Budget Committee; the Republican Study Committee, which includes most Republican members of the House of Representatives; Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s plan for the next Republican President, which was authored by more than 100 former members of the Trump administration; and the America First Policy Institute, which is led by the co-chair of Mr. Trump’s transition team for 2025. A respected non-partisan research group thus described the Trump administration and Republican proposals as “repealing or weakening the ACA, capping and cutting Medicaid financing, [and] restricting Medicaid eligibility.”

Electoral finish lines are now coming into view, but it is not too late for either party to take a run at this issue. For Republicans, whose platform already promises to cut neither Medicare nor Social Security, the fix is simple: add Medicaid and ACA health care to the programs they pledge to protect from the budget cutter’s axe.

If Republicans refuse to take that step, the strategy for Democrats is equally straightforward: energetically inform Latino voters that Republican candidates are planning historic cuts to America’s health care programs, cuts that would cause health care costs to spike and deny essential medical care to millions of hardworking Latino families.

Both parties say they care deeply about Hispanic voters. What counts, of course, is what they do, not what they say. In the coming weeks, Latinos will be watching carefully to see whether each party’s approach to health care reflects a commitment to meeting the community’s needs.

The most successful Olympic athletes worked both hard and smart to prepare for this year’s Games. When it comes to the vastly more important race that will run through the tape in early November, the party that works hardest and most wisely to gain the allegiance of America’s Hispanic voters is likely to come out on top. And one surprising key to earning that support could turn out to involve the sleeper issue of 2024: health care.  

About the Author

Rafael Collazo serves as the Executive Director of the UnidosUS Action Fund, the political arm of UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization.

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El Gran Debate: On Wednesday night, the four 2024 candidates for governor of Puerto Rico debated. It was a vibe, to say the least.

_{The Latino Newsletter welcomes opinion pieces in English and/or Spanish from community voices. You can email them to our publisher, Julio Ricardo Varela. The views expressed by outside opinion contributors do not necessarily reflect the editorial views of this outlet.}