Dispatch From Caracas

Exclusive to The Latino Newsletter

CARACAS — To understand what happened Sunday in Venezuela, the following facts first need to be presented:

• 7.7 million people have left the country since 2014, according to UNHCR estimates. The Associated Press said it is “the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history.” The country’s current population is about 29.4 million people.

• About 29% of Venezuelans (2.5 million households) receive remittances (remesas) from abroad. That amounts to more than $4.2 billion, according to a 2022 report.

• 8 out of 10 families have at least one relative who’s gone abroad.

With that context, many Venezuelans went to the polls on Sunday, wishing to turn their country into a place people want to return to. 

And it went both ways. The Venezuelan economy dropped drastically in the last decade, but it started a slight recovery in 2021, and the government claims the economy will continue to grow.

What We Know

In the days before the election, on the streets of Caracas, voters on both sides of the political spectrum said they hoped their loved ones would reconsider returning home after Sunday’s vote. Many cast their ballots with names on their hearts. 

But it all got complicated after polls closed on Sunday evening, and what came after was —to some— predictable, but left many concerned and frustrated. As of Wednesday morning, this is what we know: 

• The National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Nicolás Maduro, the incumbent president since 2013, as the winner. The CNE claimed that it had reviewed 80% of the ballots to that point.

• The opposition said that their exit polls showed a clear victory, raising doubts about the government’s claims. A New York Times analysis of partial election results from an opposition-aligned research group released on Wednesday suggests that Maduro lost decisively. Opposition-aligned tallies of voter files also show Maduro trailing.

• The government has not released any details from the election since early Monday.

• On Wednesday morning, the Carter Center, a relevant international observer, said that “Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.”

• The government has said repeatedly that the opposition is trying to stage a U.S.-backed coup.

• Relevant regional leaders have expressed concerns or rejected the result announced by the CNE.

• Foro Penal is saying that at least 16 people have died in protests since Sunday.

A Different Result?

“I would have liked a different result,” said Guillermo Nolivos, a Venezuelan living in New York since 1997, now working as an immigrant lawyer in the city.

“Many people want to return, no one really wants to leave their homeland. Many diasporans wanted to return to a working country, a productive country, a country with a future, but that’s not what it is like now,” he told me over the phone on Monday.

In early July, before kickstarting the campaign, Maduro’s government announced that one million migrants had returned to Venezuela since the start of his 2018 “Return to the Homeland” program. Government press statements said the program provides aid and support for those who wish to return. However, I wasn’t able to access any official proof to check that the people had indeed entered the country to return, nor did I find locals to confirm such a big flow of people returning. 

Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado —candidate and opposition leader— rallied as a duo and worked together politically throughout the electoral process. They mentioned several times that they intended to build the conditions for people to return home.

Their pledges, swaying between a moderate vision from González Urrutia and hardliner Machado, included privatizing public companies, negotiating the lifting of sanctions against the country and attracting foreign investment. 

But Sunday and its aftermath changed it all. 

The Day After

On Monday morning, I walked to a grocery shop, one of the very few ones still open after warnings of violence on the streets. I spoke with Jonathan, a 34-year-old man. 

Do you have friends living abroad?

Yes, also many relatives.

And what does the victory of Maduro mean to you, do you think they’ll want to return now?

No, I don’t think they’ll want to return now.

Would you leave?

Yes, I’ve only got my mom and a few cousins left here. 

Why didn’t you consider leaving before? What kept you here?

Hope. I had hope. But I’ve lost it now. 

Back in the United States

The Venezuelan elections and their consequences are impacting U.S. politics and policy. President Joe Biden has been criticized by allies and opponents for an alleged inability to contain the border. A political crisis in Venezuela, as it has been proven in the past years, would not help stem the criticism.

Vice President Kamala Harris tweeted a few hours before the CNE declaration, saying that the “will of the Venezuelan people must be respected.”

Right after the CNE declaration, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there were “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the votes of the Venezuelan people.”

Biden’s most clear message came on Tuesday. It was a joint statement with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president and a key player in Latin American politics. 

The Biden/Lula joint statement was far more open to dialogue with Maduro than some other presidents across the region, including the presidents of Argentina, Uruguay, Panamá and the Dominican Republic, who rushed to say that the government had committed fraud. 

What It Can Mean

What does this mean for Venezuelans abroad?

Esteban Octavio Scuzarello, a PhD candidate studying Latin American migration at the European Institute, told me it’s still too early to tell. But there are a few points to pay attention to.

“If repression [on behalf of the government] worsens, it wouldn’t be too crazy to think that migration could increase,” he said. “Breaking diplomatic relations with big migrant flows affects the daily life of migrants: consulates shut down, any paperwork becomes very complicated.”

But he added something else, harder to measure but heavier in an already damaged diaspora.

“These people had to flee, and now they see it harder to ever return.” 

“Venezuela is often weaponized to make politics internally,” he said, arguing that the position towards Chavismo is often used as an ideological statement on behalf of politicians. “And it has become less important in U.S. foreign policy with wars: some sanctions have been slightly lifted, some business is being done with American capitals.”

But he warned that this is still a U.S. election year, and migration from Venezuela is relevant.

A source who closely monitors Latin American and U.S. relations told me that the U.S. behavior towards Venezuela would be key for what’s left of the Biden-Harris administration and, even more, the one to come in 2025. The Democrats’ approach is being closely watched internally, and Biden could be held accountable for being “too soft” with Maduro, who many see as an autocrat. 

About the Journalist

Lucía Cholakian Herrera is an independent journalist based in Buenos Aires who covers Argentina and Latin America.

Editor’s note: Lucía was in Caracas during the election and the two days after Sunday. The story was also updated to include new analysis and opposition-aligned tallies made public.