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Early voting at the Hal Marshall polling location. (Patricia Ortiz/Enlace Latino NC)
Originally published at Enlace Latino NC
Accepted in-person early voting and mail-in ballots from Latino voters in North Carolina tripled compared with the equivalent period of the 2022 midterm elections, according to an Enlace Latino NC analysis of the State Board of Elections data.
As of Tuesday, October 27, the state had recorded approximately 59,990 accepted ballots associated with unique Latino voter identifiers, compared with about 19,460 during the equivalent period in 2022. This represents an increase of nearly 208%, far exceeding the approximately 36% increase recorded statewide.
The analysis compares the first 13 days of in-person early voting in both elections and includes mail-in ballots accepted through the respective cutoff dates.
The share of accepted ballots cast by Latino voters also increased, from approximately 1.35% in 2022 to 3.06% in 2026.
Growth in the Latino electorate could explain part of the increase, but not necessarily its full magnitude, according to Christopher Cooper, distinguished professor of political science and public affairs and director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University.
“Part of the increase is due to the larger number of people who identify as Hispanic and Latino, but that’s not the whole story,” Cooper told Enlace NC. “Clearly the increase is real.”
The political scientist noted that the data also point to potentially greater motivation to vote among Latinos, although the figures are preliminary.
“Thus far, it appears that the Latino electorate is motivated to vote — time will tell if that continues on election day,” he said.
The analysis compares the first 13 days of in-person early voting in both midterm elections, 2022 and 2026. It includes mail-in ballots accepted through the respective cutoff dates.
Cooper noted that growth in the Latino electorate could become significant in races decided by narrow margins.
The increase in early voting does not guarantee higher overall turnout, as it could reflect more voters casting their ballots before Election Day. However, it establishes a trend in participation among this electorate.
Young Latino Voters Record Largest Increases
The increase was particularly pronounced among Latino voters ages 18 to 24, whose accepted ballots rose from approximately 2,130 in 2022 to 13,840 in 2026, an increase of nearly 549%.
Among voters ages 25 to 34, accepted ballots increased from about 2,630 to 11,460, approximately 336%.
Combined, Latinos ages 18 to 34 recorded about 25,300 accepted ballots in 2026, compared with approximately 4,770 four years earlier. The increase was nearly 431%.
This group accounted for approximately 42% of accepted ballots from Latino voters in 2026, compared with 25% in 2022.
The analysis compares the first 13 days of in-person early voting in both midterm elections, 2022 and 2026. It includes mail-in ballots accepted through the respective cutoff dates.
A Possible Shift
If sustained, this trend could be historic for the Latino electorate, whose voter turnout rate has been lower than that of other groups in past elections.
Cooper cautioned that historically low Latino turnout does not necessarily reflect less motivation to vote.
“Latino voter participation has traditionally lagged participation among other groups, but that’s not because the Latino electorate is less motivated to vote, but rather because of other factors,” he said.
Researchers at Tufts University have identified several factors that could contribute to this difference, including the youth of the Latino population, registration barriers, and less contact with campaigns and political organizations.
Age is particularly relevant: Nearly two-thirds of registered Latino voters in the state were under 41 years old in early 2026, a considerably higher proportion than among non-Hispanic voters. Younger voters, regardless of their ethnicity, tend to participate less than older voters.
Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters
Latino voters registered as Democrats accounted for approximately 28,440 accepted ballots in 2026, compared with about 8,400 in 2022, according to the analysis through the 13th day of early voting.
Their share of all accepted ballots from Latino voters increased from 43% to 47%.
Among voters with no party affiliation, accepted ballots rose from approximately 7,330 to 24,890. Their share increased from 38% to 42%.
Latino voters registered as Republicans also saw an increase in accepted ballots, from about 3,660 in 2022 to approximately 6,340 in 2026. However, their share of the Latino total declined from 19% to 11%.
Among Latino voters ages 18 to 34, accepted ballots from Democrats increased by approximately 483%. This compares with 463% among unaffiliated voters and 84% among Republicans.
Party affiliation refers to voters’ registration records and does not indicate which candidates they voted for.
Methodology
Enlace Latino NC analyzed early voting and mail-in ballot files from the North Carolina State Board of Elections for 2022 and 2026.
The comparison includes the first 13 days of in-person early voting in each election: October 20 to November 1, 2022, and October 15 to October 27, 2026. Mail-in ballots accepted through the respective cutoff dates were also included.
Latino voters were identified using the “HISPANIC or LATINO” ethnic classification included in the election files. Each voter identifier (ncid) was counted only once.
Claudia Rivera Cotto is a bilingual journalist who covers politics, government, and immigration in North Carolina for Enlace Latino NC.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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