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From the beginning of the year, the U.S. Census Bureau has been releasing U.S. population estimates for the period between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025. The data have shown that the U.S. population grew at half the rate it did the year before, due primarily to a decline in immigration.
The most recent population estimates allow us to examine population trends for Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups and assess the impact of the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign on these groups. There were approximately one million fewer Latinos added to the U.S. population in 2024-2025 than in the previous year.
Overall, the number of people added to the U.S. population between the last two years fell from 3.2 million in 2023-2024 to nearly 1.8 million, a drop of approximately 1.5 million people. All racial/ethnic groups experienced declines in absolute growth during this period. However, Latinos, with a total of nearly one million, accounted for nearly two-thirds of the 1.5 million fewer people added to the population compared to the prior year.
Furthermore, the 2024-2025 annual growth rate of the Latino population fell to 1.96 percent, just over half the previous year's rate (3.45%) (Figure 2). In fact, during the last five years, the latest growth rate is the lowest since 2020-2021, the first year of the pandemic, when the Latino growth rate stood at 1.23 percent.
All other racial/ethnic groups also experienced reductions in their growth rates in 2024-2025 compared to the previous year, albeit not as sharp as the reduction of Latinos (Figure 3). The Asian growth rate also dropped substantially during this period.
Significant Decline in Latino International Migration
Population change at the national level results from births, deaths, and net international migration (immigrants minus emigrants), with the first two components representing natural change (births minus deaths). Note that the net international migration estimate includes not only the net international movement of people not born in the U.S. but also of that of those born in the U.S. It takes into account all individuals immigrating between the U.S. and all other countries who are not born in the U.S. as well as those born in the U.S., those moving between Puerto Rico and the U.S. mainland, and U.S. armed forces personnel.
Table 1 shows the components of the Latino population change in 2023-2024 and 2024-2025. The number of Latino births and deaths remained pretty stable in the last two years. However, the net international migration fell by 625,000 from approximately 1.2 million in 2023-2024 to 543,000, a decline of 54 percent. The share of Latino population growth attributable to net international migration fell from 60 percent in 2023-2024 to 40 percent in 2024-2025.
Overall, all racial/ethnic groups experienced declines in net international migration between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025, with an overall reduction of 1.5 million fewer immigrants in the U.S. Overall, 81 percent of the decline in net international migration consisted of non-whites, with Latinos accounting for 41 percent and all other non-white racial/ethnic groups for 40 percent (Figure 4).
Who are these nearly 1 million Latinos who are not with us? They include babies who would have been here, but their mothers are no longer here, others who have left the country — some of these deported and others who opted to leave — and still others who, under prior conditions, would have immigrated here.
As the analysis presented here shows, Latinos have been disproportionately impacted by the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign. Still, it should be emphasized that these most recent data cover less than six months from the beginning of the mass deportation operation (from January 20, 2025, to July 1, 2025).
Updated population estimates for the period between July 1, 2025, and July 1, 2026, to be released in June 2027, will reveal a more complete portrait, undoubtedly demonstrating a rising impact of mass deportation on the Latino population.
Rogelio Sáenz is Professor of sociology and demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio. His analysis and opinions expressed here are his own and not those of the University of Texas at San Antonio.
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What We’re Reading
Another ICE Killing: From the Portland Press Herald, the local news account of how ICE killed another Latino man in the last week. As the story starts:
“The little girl was still in Bluey pajamas.
No older than 3, she was trying to smell the flowers.
At her side, a pink rolling bag.
Her father, Joan Sebastian Guerrero, had just been fatally shot and yanked from a car he’d been driving. Now, he lay handcuffed in the street, where he would remain for five hours.”
Julio Ricardo Varela edited and published this edition of The Latino Newsletter.
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