National Snap Poll Says 73% of Latinos Almost Certain to Vote in 2024

Editor’s Note: The 2024 Democratic National Convention starts today, and The Latino Newsletter is in Chicago with contributors Hector Luis Alamo and Carlos Berríos Polanco. We will also be publishing a diary on Friday from delegate Daniela Velázquez.

Here are some stories we have been following in the lead-up to Monday night’s start of DNC programming.

On Monday in Chicago, Hispanic Federation and Latino Victory Foundation, shared the results of a national snap poll of Latino voters. The survey was conducted by BSP Research, whose co-founder, Matt Baretto, also conducts polling for the White House and the DNC. Here are some of the findings from the release:

• 73% of registered Latino voters are almost certain they will vote in the 2024 Presidential election

• In a combined 2-way vote, Harris led former President Donald Trump by 24 points, 59% to 35% among registered Latino voters

• Harris’ emergence has generated enthusiasm across key segments that Democrats will need to consolidate, with 57% of respondents replying that they are more interested in voting due to Vice President Harris entering the presidential election

• Inflation and cost of living remain the top issue by a large margin: 60% cited as top issue

• Jobs (38%) and housing costs and affordability (29%), rank high after inflation

• Outside of economic concerns, immigration issues (21%) and reform (20%), gun violence (20%), and abortion rights (18%) are the top cited concerns

• The majority of Latino voters do not feel well informed on candidates’ policy proposals and platforms

According to the release, “BSP collected 600 interviews with registered Latino voters of all backgrounds from across the country, with a nominal margin of error of +/- 4.0%. The poll fielded from August 6-9, with a sample size of 600 voters, reached by cell phone, email invite, or online voter panels.”

In 2020, 53.7% of Latinos turned out to vote, estimated to be around 18.7 Latino voters.

The presentation deck and toplines are here.

A video of the Monday press conference from Chicago is here.

Harris-Walz Campaign Creates WhatsApp Group for Latinos

First reported Monday morning by Jazmine Ulloa of The New York Times, the Harris-Walz campaign has created a WhatsApp channel “in an effort to reach Latino voters, a critical slice of the American electorate that Democrats have struggled to shore up and whose decisions at the ballot box could prove decisive in November.”

The first WhatsApp post was a video by Harris campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez:

As of the time of this publication, the “Latinos con Harris-Walz” WhatsApp channel has 600 followers.

According to a 2024 Pew Research study of social media usage in the United States, 54% of Latinos say they use WhatsApp, the largest of any demographic.

Decolonization Earns Support From Puerto Rican Voters in US States

A new poll from Right to Democracy, La Brega y Fuerza and IZQ Strategies asked 657 Puerto Rican voters across the 50 states the following question:

If a political candidate explicitly endorses and mentions as part of their platform their commitment to self-determination and a decolonization processes for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa, would this make you more likely or less likely to vote for this candidate, or would it not affect your choice?

Here are the results:

According to the survey, there was +14 positive sentiment for a more likely option. That number increases to +28 with respondents between 18 and 34 years old.

“Our polling shows that supporting a process of self-determination and decolonization for people in all five territories is a winning issue for candidates seeking Puerto Rican votes, both stateside and in the archipelago,” said Camille Rivera, founding board member of La Brega y Fuerza, “an organization that works to build a pipeline of power, democracy, self-determination and resilience for Puerto Ricans on the island and across the United States,” according to an email from Right to Democracy.

The same question was asked of 362 respondents in Puerto Rico. Here are those results:

The more likely sentiment was at +18 overall and +44 with respondents between 18 and 34 years old.

The complete post is here.

Univision Noticias/You Gov Latino Voters Poll: Harris 55%, Trump 38%

On Sunday morning, Univision Noticias and YouGov shared a media release about a new poll of registered Latino voters that was first reported on “Al Punto con Jorge Ramos.”

Here are some findings from the release:

• If the election were held today, 55% of registered voters would elect Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris, compared to 38% who would choose Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.

• The Noticias Univision/YouGov poll shows that Harris has regained some ground this election cycle following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race, but still needs additional support to match the 2020 presidential election results when President Biden won 63% of the Hispanic vote, according to AP VoteCast. 

• When looking at gender, the Democratic candidate is winning the female vote by more than 25 points compared to former President Trump. The poll also revealed a closer gap among men, with Harris holding only a 6-point lead.

• The poll also reveals that two-thirds of respondents believe that personal attacks are unproductive and distract from important issues.

What We’re Listening To (and Reading)

We are going to mix it up today because there are two strong podcast episodes for this week:

From The New Yorker Radio Hour:

From Latino USA:

Finally, starting today…