Lula Wins a ‘Miracle’ Election in Brazil

Three weeks ago, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s political obituaries had been written.

The far-right presidential candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro, had easily won the first round of the presidential election.

At 80 years old, Lula seemed headed for a quiet exit after four decades at the center of Brazilian political life.

On Sunday, however, Lula proved everyone wrong. He won the runoff and secured a fourth non-consecutive term as Brazil’s president.

Since the two-round system was adopted by the 1988 Brazilian Constitution, the first-round leader had always gone on to win. Lula broke that pattern by turning a defeat of around 2.2 million votes in the first round into a solid victory.

When his new term ends, Lula will have governed Brazil for 16 (non-consecutive) years — the longest democratically elected tenure in the country’s history.

And no runoff campaign in Brazil had ever brought so many people into the streets and onto social media, on both sides. It was a mass mobilization which reflected in an unprecedented turnout.

Lula’s victory matters globally, as it makes Brazil a bulwark against the rise of the far right. In recent elections across Latin America and Europe, far-right parties and leaders have advanced almost everywhere.

Regionally, Lula has defied the so-called “incumbent curse.” Over the past decade in Latin America, governing parties have lost election after election, punished by voters for inflation, insecurity and economic stagnation.

His win is also a check on what critics have called the “Donroe Doctrine,” referring to the Trump administration’s push to bring the Western Hemisphere more firmly into the U.S. sphere of influence through tariffs, threats, and political patronage.

Bolsonaro had campaigned as Washington’s preferred partner in South America. Brazil’s voters turned that offer down.

Now, Lula has to govern a country more polarized than ever, where political violence and hate speech are on the rise. Bolsonaro Jr.’s refusal to concede will fuel the flames of those who believe the election was stolen.

And then there is Washington. Given the White House’s close ties to the Bolsonaro family, there is a real risk the Trump administration will question, or even refuse to recognize, the outcome.

Things are further complicated by a legal battle on election day itself. After allegations of voter suppression of Lula’s supporters in several cities, the justices of Brazil’s Supreme Court and Supreme Electoral Court clashed over whether to extend voting hours. Whatever the legal merits, the dispute gives the losing side a ready-made narrative of “voting irregularities.”

When Lula is inaugurated on January 5, three questions will define his fourth term.

The first is how Lula will govern a deeply divided country with a conservative majority in Congress and over a dozen right-wing state governors.

The legislature that held him hostage over the past four years has grown more hostile, not less. Every budget, every reform, and every appointment will be a tough negotiation, with the possibility of an impeachment hanging over Lula’s head.

The second is repair. How will he deal with problems that go well beyond partisan disputes?

These include fiscal pressures from rising government spending, a steady loss of trust in democratic institutions, and an institutional system that no longer works as designed.

The Supreme Court, once the guarantor of the democratic order, has seen its legitimacy eroded by a major financial scandal surrounding Banco Master. 

The third question is the most important. Will Lula, his Workers’ Party (PT) and Brazil’s broader democratic forces use this reprieve to renew Brazilian politics? That would mean fresh, younger political leadership and a new narrative that speaks to the voters who have drifted toward the far right.

This is the only real antidote to polarization, and it will not come from a single election or a single leader.

Lula has worked another miracle. His last task is to make sure Brazil does not need another one.

Guilherme Casarões is Associate Professor of Brazilian Studies at the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University. A version of this article first appeared in The Conversation Brasil, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing the knowledge of academic experts.

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