How Mexico Might Respond in 2025 to US Immigration Policy

TOLUCA — During a July rally, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Mexico, saying that he would force the country to deploy 28,000 soldiers to guard the U.S. border and implement a 25% tariff increase on automobile exports.

It was yet another example of Trump’s promises targeted at radically altering the relationship between the United States and Mexico, a relationship that Mexican-born journalist Rafael Bernal of The Hill told The Latino Newsletter, “is the most important bilateral relationship on Earth. Bar none. Period.”

Besides Trump’s 2024 campaign promises, the current Republican Party platform is calling for “THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY.”

What does this all mean from the Mexican perspective?

The Latino Newsletter reached out to three voices for some answers.

Mass Deportation

Marisol Méndez, advocacy coordinator for migrant rights group Fundación Para la Justicia, does not think that Mexico would even be able to absorb mass deportations from the U.S.

“[The Americans] aren’t even prepared to guarantee the safety of these people seeking asylum in the U.S. and who remain in Mexico. Mexico isn’t prepared to handle a migration crisis of that magnitude,” she told The Latino Newsletter. “There would have to be measures that ensure respect for migrants’ human rights. There have been people expelled from the U.S. Mexico has somehow supported these expulsions. Let's say that suddenly what they do is move migrants from the northern border to the southern border and take them to Guatemala.”

Dr. Luis Eduardo Zavala de Alba, director of the Casa Monarca migrant center and visiting professor at Yale University, offered a more pragmatic solution.

“Trump, after all, is a negotiator in terms of economic impact and knows that he cannot carry out a political discourse simply to gain supporters amidst ignorance and anti-immigrant sentiment. No, he knows perfectly well that it is economically impossible to deport that many people due to the impact it would have on both countries’ economies,” Zavala de Alba said. 

A Mexican systems engineer and investment executive said this is all about political negotiation and calculation.

“[Mexico] could respond with price increases in various perishable products that affected the internal economy of the U.S. We know about glyphosate, and electric cars. And let's not forget that we can use the USMCA agreement and our country’s laws,” Fernando Jacinto of Citigroup told The Latino Newsletter.

Forbes notes that “the United States did $798.83 billion in trade with Mexico in 2023.”

What About Kamala Harris?

As for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, it’s safe to conclude that her administration would be a continuation of President Joe Biden's immigration policy, which has received mixed results.

The initiative to increase economic growth in Central America is also supported by Mexico’s President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum. Still, Méndez notes, such policy is not enough.

“I think much of the discourse has focused on addressing migration’s causes in the countries of origin through social policies, but another cause is related to violence. It's important to combat violence there, but part of this also involves the U.S.,” Méndez said. “There are studies where it has been identified that weapons exported by the U.S. reach Central America, sometimes illegally, and these weapons are also used by criminal groups.”

Mexico initiated a lawsuit against American gun manufacturers in 2021, an action supported by the Biden administration.

While migrants wait in Mexico for resolutions on their U.S. asylum claims, they find themselves at the mercy of organized crime.

“Cities on Mexico’s northern border are some of the most dangerous in the world, implying many risks for foreigners who are waiting for a U.S. asylum resolution,” Méndez said. “Mexican authorities accepted it as a U.S. policy. However, no measures have been adopted to ensure migrants’ safety.”

“These people are exposed to organized crime, which is present and sometimes controls the territory,” she added. “So they can be victims of kidnappings, extortions and collusion between organized crime and local transporters to kidnap people, and then extort and ask for money from their families.”

The push for “humanitarian corridors” inside Mexico is seen by Zavala de Alba as “inefficient.” He explained the Mexican government cannot ensure safe passages “because organized crime has unfortunately abused migrants through kidnapping and forced disappearance.”

The Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) noted three concerning trends in a 2024 report about migration from Mexico:

1. The kidnapping and extortion of migrants has increased notably since late 2023. Many describe this moment as the worst period of violence they’ve seen, both in numbers and brutality.

2. Many Mexican authorities tolerate or are actively involved in the migrant kidnapping enterprise.

3. U.S. border policies continue to channel migrants and asylum seekers through Tamaulipas at disproportionately high rates, even though U.S. authorities are aware of the extreme dangers for migrants in this region of the border.

Mexico’s President-Elect

Earlier this year and before she was elected Mexico’s next President, Sheinbaum said that she supports investments in Mexico and Central America through social programs and simultaneously generating development hubs.

One of these social programs is called “Sembrando Vida.” (“Planting Life”), which is a key part of Sheinbaum’s platform, both for Mexico and neighboring Central American countries.

However, as Jacinto explained, the billions of dollars needed to implement these programs still require support from the U.S. and Congress.

“There are big projects. That's why ‘Sembrando Vida’ became the pillar of Sheinbaum’s transition. This is pure oxygen for your country. And how can we not forget all our brother border countries, where ‘Sembrando Vida’ could boost the region’s economy?” Jacinto said.

A Harris administration would be central for these social programs and investments to continue.

If Trump returns to the White House, Mexico could follow Republican mass deportation policy.

No matter the November outcome in the U.S., migrants and human rights will keep being used as political bargaining chips.

About the Author

Roberto Díaz is a proud Mexican journalist covering topics of immigration, public policy and democracy struggles in Latin America.

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