A new Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 validated votes states that Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election with a broader, more racially and ethnically diverse coalition than in his previous campaigns.
Latinos were part of that coalition.
According to the Pew report released on Thursday morning, Trump narrowed the gap with Latino voters to just three percentage points, earning 48% to Kamala Harris’ 51%. In 2020, Trump trailed Joe Biden among Latinos by 25 points (61% to 36%).
This would mark the best performance ever with Latinos by a Republican presidential candidate.
The shift is clear in Pew’s breakdown of validated voter data by race and gender. Trump won Latino men by 2 points (50% to 48%) and was only 6 points behind Harris (52% to 46%) among Latina women.
Via Pew Research Center
These shifts were driven less by Latino voters switching sides than by who showed up. Among Latinos who voted for Biden in 2020, only 77% turned out again in 2024. By contrast, 86% of Trump’s 2020 Latino voters returned to the polls.
Via Pew Research Center
The results raise sharp questions for Democrats heading into the 2026 and 2028 elections. How do they reconnect with Latino voters who stayed home or showed up for Trump? And what happens if new Latino voters continue to drift away from the party? For a coalition that was previously more Democratic, this Pew data confirms that the Latino electorate is becoming more politically independent and less tied to traditional party loyalties.
According to previous reporting by the Associated Press, 56% of Latino voters backed Harris in 2024, while Donald Trump received 42%, marking the narrowest Democratic edge on record. The shrinking gap mirrors trends highlighted by Pew and AP: economic messaging resonated, throwing into question long-held assumptions about Latino loyalty and confirming the Latino vote remains up for grabs.
Last November, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA) published a graphic of what national exit polls said about Latino voters in presidential elections since 1984.
Via AS/COA
Access the full Pew report here.
Since the 2024 election, polls have shown Trump’s Latino support waning.
Help Us Launch Season 2 of Our Podcast
What We’re Reading
Padilla on Latino USA: The team at Latino USA published a new interview with Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) about his removal from a Department of Homeland Security press conference.
Julio Ricardo Varela is the founder of The Latino Newsletter. He is also its current part-time publisher and executive director. Email him here.
Consider donating to The Latino Newsletter. Any contribution, no matter how small, helps keep this newsletter free and accessible to all. ¡Gracias mil!