President Sheinbaum's Security Strategy

Opinion for The Latino Newsletter

Editor’s Note: The Mexico Political Economist covers Mexican politics for global readers. It is a reader-supported Substack newsletter. You can subscribe here. The following is a condensed version of a piece published by the site.

Last week, Claudia Sheinbaum was inaugurated as Mexico’s new president. Like any Mexican leader, she faces a complex criminal panorama. Her first weeks in office will underscore her administration’s strategy and give clues as to how successful it might ultimately be. This isn’t media conjecture—it is part of the president’s stated security strategy for her first 100 days.

Under Andrés Manuel López Obrador, her predecessor and mentor, going after organized crime hardly seemed like a priority. On the contrary, López Obrador denied basic facts about crime in Mexico, claiming, for example, that fentanyl was not produced there. He also seemed oddly at ease comforting the families of known kingpins or lambasting U.S. prosecutions of Mexican drug traffickers.

Sheinbaum faces a tough hand. Besides the security panorama, López Obrador has left office in a blaze of reforms, such as ensuring judges will be elected by voters.

López Obrador has now stepped down, and Sheinbaum must outline her own security plan. During her campaign, her mantra was that she would bring peace to the country, just as she did in the capital. That would be a remarkable achievement, as homicides dropped by over 50% in Mexico City during Sheinbaum’s time as mayor (2018-2024).

The man credited with that success is by her side: Omar García Harfuch. He effectively presented himself to the public as a "soldier-cop" of sorts during his time as Sheinbaum’s security secretary in Mexico City. They’re now looking to recreate that success at a national scale, as the president has appointed García Harfuch as her federal Security Secretary.

World of Crime and The Mexico Political Economist have jointly analyzed her major priorities.

Improving Citizen Perception

Under López Obrador, the narrative around citizen security took an interesting turn. He managed to keep his popularity high, even without a solid security plan, largely thanks to a focus on social programs. But now, as Sheinbaum steps into the spotlight, she faces the daunting task of reshaping how citizens perceive security—especially with recent spikes in violence, particularly in the northwestern regions, where factions of the Sinaloa Cartel are in a brutal civil war.

López Obrador made some bold proclamations about crime rates—an 18% drop in homicides, a 30% reduction in robberies, and a 77% decrease in kidnappings. But those numbers don’t necessarily match the feelings on the ground. In March, 61% of Mexican adults claimed to feel unsafe. 

While public confidence in the Mexican armed forces and the National Guard remains high, faith in how the government runs security is low. Sheinbaum will need to be transparent and roll out tangible security benefits that people can feel. 

Enter García Harfuch. Fresh off his success in Mexico City, a solid investigative track record, and a survivor of an assassination attempt by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), the new security secretary is hoping to make a fresh start. But how much power he will have is up for debate.

What to Do With the National Guard?

The National Guard was established by López Obrador in 2019, aiming to tackle Mexico's rampant violence and crime. Early in López Obrador’s tenure, the dissolution of the Federal Police gave way to its replacement by the National Guard, a militarized gendarmerie. This gave the national security force the firepower to deal with Mexico’s heavily armed organized crime, but it deprived them of the civilian investigative powers needed to effectively prosecute the criminals. 

Just before Sheinbaum took office, the National Guard was formally transferred to be under military control. This move raised alarms among critics, who see this as the final step toward militarized public security. 

This is a sensitive topic in Mexico. It raises specters from the era of president Felipe Calderón (2006-2012), who unleashed the Mexican army against drug cartels, kicking off almost two decades of skyrocketing homicide rates.

The National Guard reform will give the body far more scope to conduct investigations that might lead to prosecutions. 

In Mexico, most crime goes unpunished, often not because of the ineptitude of judges, but because of malpractice at the lower levels of the investigative process. Evidence is lost or tampered with; suspects are sometimes even tortured, so when it all comes out in court, the judge is forced to declare a mistrial. The government’s bet is that the National Guard will be more adept. Whether or not this will happen remains unknown, but it does give García Harfuch better access to the tools he worked with in Mexico City, namely the close coordination with security forces, investigators, prosecutors, and judges.

Many of the above roles are now bundled up in the National Guard, which will be tasked with executing a national security plan designed by García Harfuch. Whether they will dance to his tune or to the Defense Ministry’s —which gets to execute García Harfuch’s plan after having been given control of the National Guard by the reform— also remains to be seen.

A Hundred Days, Six Municipalities

Sheinbaum’s security plan identifies six municipalities across five states as focal points in her security strategy: Tijuana in Baja California, León and Celaya in Guanajuato, Benito Juárez in Quintana Roo, Acapulco in Guerrero, and Colima, the eponymous capital of Colima state. 

These are all critically violent hotspots. But simply pointing at them and declaring them priorities doesn’t solve anything. A “one-approach-fits-all” strategy will fail and likely make things worse. It’s vital to recognize that these regions are not merely statistics on a map; they are complex ecosystems of crime influenced by unique social, economic, and political factors. 

Getting to grips with these complexities will likely take more than 100 days. It is difficult to believe any meaningful change could be enacted in that time. 

The Road Ahead

Like any new president, Sheinbaum is looking to make her mark quickly. That is particularly needed given the speculation that López Obrador will seek to influence her government behind the scenes.

Mexico’s anti-cartel strategies have failed time and time again for prioritizing short-term achievements over long-term commitment. For extortion, migrant smuggling, and synthetic drugs, the barrier to entry for major criminal economies is lower than ever. The conflict within the Sinaloa Cartel, a group that underpinned Mexico’s drug trafficking landscape for over two decades, has thrown another spanner in the works.

Sheinbaum and García Harfuch have a hard task ahead. They will soon need to reveal their vision for Mexico’s security, far beyond the first 100 days.

About the Author

The Mexico Political Economist: Mexican politics without the politicking.

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