President Donald Trump has directed Texas to redraw congressional districts to give Republicans five more Republican seats for the upcoming midterm elections. Texas governor Greg Abbott expeditiously called a special legislative session to address Trump’s request.

The new redistricting map giving Republicans five new congressional districts has been drafted, but a quorum to bid Trump’s political shenanigans is stalled, as many Texas Democrats have left the state to deter a vote that would result in the passage of the new Republican gerrymandered map. Abbott is threatening for the FBI to have the wayward Democrats arrested and stripped of their political office. 

Midterm redistricting is pretty rare. What big demographic shifts are afoot in Texas since the 2020 census that will help Republicans gain a political edge for the upcoming midterm elections?

Let’s take a look at the numbers. Between the April 1, 2020, census and July 1, 2024, Texas added more than 2.1 million people, with nearly 2.1 million being people of color who traditionally vote Democrat versus 91,000 whites who traditionally vote Republican (Figure 1). As such, for every one new white person in the Texas population since the 2020 census, there were 22.5 people of color.

Hardly an urgent shift in the white population in Texas to justify the redrawing of congressional districts in the middle of the decade before the upcoming midterm elections. The intent of Trump and Abbott is clearly to offset the disproportionate growth of people of color and their potential for gaining adequate political representation.

Democratic leaders in other states are threatening to do their own redistricting as a way to offset the new Texas congressional districts.

Let’s now examine the national figures regarding population growth. Overall, between the 2020 census and July 1, 2024, 8.6 million people were added across the country, with the growth exclusively due to people of color, who added more than 10.7 million, offsetting a decline of more than 2.1 million among whites.

During the 2020-2024 period, 33 states experienced a decline of whites compared to only one (Hawaii) for people of color. In fact, white growth surpassed that of people of color only in Idaho, Montana, and South Carolina (Figure 2), with these states accounting for a mere 2.5 percent of the overall U.S. population in 2024.

Once again, these are hardly numbers that urgently shift the demography of the U.S. population in favor of Republicans that require redistricting in the middle of the decade.

If Democrat states actualize their threat to do their own redistricting, Republicans could well end up worse than they did following the 2020 census.

Over the last three decades, Texas Republicans, through a variety of tactics, have been able to offset the disproportionate growth of Latinos and other groups of color, which has had the potential for these groups to gain political power. As the white population gets older and its growth rate becomes increasingly anemic, Republican efforts, such as the current mid-decade redistricting, will be put forth to derail the political momentum of people of color.

In the future, due to an aging white population and a more youthful population of color, the population and eligible voters of color will grow more rapidly than whites. In 2023, the median age of white citizens of voting age was 11 years older than that of people of color nationally and in Texas. For sure, this is yet another reason Trump is conducting his mass deportation campaign and is intent on eliminating birthright citizenship.

Rogelio Sáenz is Professor in the Department of Sociology and Demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio. He is author of the just recently published 2nd edition of Latina/os in the United States: Diversity and Change. He is the 2023 Ernest W. Burgess Fellow of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, where he regularly writes on public policy issues. 

Alligator Alcatraz Update: Just in from the Associated Press about Alligator Alcatraz: “The facility can continue to operate and hold detainees for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, but workers will be barred from adding any new filling, paving or infrastructure for the next 14 days. U.S. District Judge Kathleen Williams issued the ruling during a hearing and said she will issue a written order later Thursday.”

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A bailar.

New Opinion for MSNBC: Here is new MSNBC opinion from Julio Ricardo Varela, founder of The Latino Newsletter. It starts: “Latino voters are still waiting for real economic relief. Like most other Americans, they’re dealing with high prices, flat wages and the daily strain of trying to stay afloat. And they are not seeing solutions from either party.”

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The Latino Newsletter welcomes opinion pieces in English and/or Spanish from community voices. Submission guidelines are here. The views expressed by outside opinion contributors do not necessarily reflect the editorial views of this outlet or its employees.