Top Latino Group Says Harris Will Win Arizona, But by Less Than Biden

The top Latino group in Arizona has a message for the rest of the country: Expect Arizona to be another nail-biter on Tuesday night.

LUCHA Arizona, the longtime respected community group, which has worked in the state since it fought against the draconian anti-immigration bill SB 1070 a decade ago, told The Latino Newsletter that Vice President Harris will win by even less than the razor-thin 11,000 votes President Joe Biden won by four years ago.

“I think we’re going to win very, very narrowly, I think it’s going to be closer than 10,000 votes,” Alejandra Gomez, the group’s executive director said. She said her group completed 300 shifts over the weekend and were leaving “it all on the field,” especially with the Trump campaign visiting the doors of Democratic voters LUCHA visited trying to flip their votes. 

“It’s going to take every vote,” she said. “We’re literally in the fight for the soul of democracy so that means we have to bring democracy to the doors.”

The group said it had hoped for a $16 million budget for its voter program this cycle but was only able to raise enough money to do a program of about six to seven million dollars. Still, Gomez said she was excited that the group was knocking on 50,000 doors every weekend, 150,000 doors total over the last week, and was hoping to end up at 650,000 doors knocked for the year when all is said and done.

What Arizona Latinos Care About

The group has in the past anecdotally shared that the community wants to hear from elected officials year round, but this year was able to conduct “incredible research,” Gomez said, which showed it to be true. LUCHA finds that Latinos care about comprehensive immigration reform, increasing the minimum wage, and paid family leave, and was able to hear from the community through barrio talks and town halls. 

People thanked LUCHA because this year’s ballot is two pages long and features an abortion measure, making it confusing for some voters. 

“They want to know who has the backs of the Latino community and they trust LUCHA because we celebrated our quince this year, 15 years in the community,” Gomez said. “So they’ve been saying ‘Thank you for coming to my door, I was so confused, and all I see on the news is so much hate.’”

LUCHA’s efforts come at a time when former president Donald Trump has strongly pushed on immigration nationally, but the issue is a top one in Arizona. With the early vote on the Republican side coming in strong, political observers in the state expect the first results to be very friendly for Trump before Democrats and Harris start clawing back. The question, they say, is will it be enough?

LUCHA’s research from within the Latino community this cycle has sought to not just help progressives and Democrats win in 2024, but also beyond, by better understanding the community. Its research effort, which the organization calls its “Latino Rising Values Clusters,” demonstrates “that Latinos do not like to be pandered to,” Gomez said.

She said the so-called “American Dream” Latino is with Democrats, but the other relationship that needs to be cultivated is with Latino voters who are reluctantly committed. They understand what is at stake but are sick of seeing mariachi trotted out every four years and people throwing tacos at them three months before the election. 

“People want a real election, that’s the segment of Latinos we’re playing catch up on,” she said.

About the Author

Adrian Carrasquillo is a national political reporter and editor who writes about an increasingly Latino America.

What We’re Reading

Univision Reports on Pennsylvania Latino Poll: On Sunday, Univision published the findings of its poll of 400 registered Latino voters in Pennsylvania, reporting the following: “When asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today, 64% of Latino respondents in Pennsylvania indicated support for Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, compared to 30% for Donald Trump. The strong preference for Harris reflects growing concerns among Latino voters about respect for their communities, especially following Trump’s recent rally, where invited speakers made remarks disparaging Puerto Ricans and Latino immigrants. The survey contains a +/-5% margin of error.”

Final NYTimes/Siena Poll: Also on Sunday, here is what The New York Times said about likely Black and Latino voters in its final NYT/Siena poll: “Ms. Harris led Black voters, 84 percent to 11 percent, up from 80-14 in the last wave of Times/Siena state polls. Similarly, she led among Hispanic voters, 56-35, up from 55-41.”

The number is not the supposedly magical 65% many think Harris would need nationally with Latinos to win. However, for the swing states where likely Latino voters were included, Harris leads Trump 65%-33% in Nevada and 59%-35% in Arizona. There are no Latino breakdowns for Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, in Puerto Rico: A few Spanish-language non-paywall articles via Metro about the closing rallies from La Alianza and the pro-statehood New Progressive Party.

Editor’s Note: The Latino Newsletter is a ‘La Voz de Mi Gente 2024’ grantee from the Hispanic Federation for the sole purpose of filing stories about Latino voter awareness in the 2024 election cycle. All stories published for the ‘La Voz de Mi Gente 2024’ series or that mention the Hispanic Federation are independently determined by The Latino Newsletter and its publisher, Julio Ricardo Varela. The Latino Newsletter operates with full editorial independence and creates strong firewalls, ensuring that all stories are produced solely at the discretion of its team, free from all external influence.

Do you believe in creating new journalism lanes for Latinos and Latinas? Do you believe that U.S. mainstream outlets will never understand our community? Consider donating to The Latino Newsletter. Any little bit helps to keep this newsletter free and accessible to all. ¡Gracias mil!