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The U.S. Census Bureau just released its much-awaited estimates of the nation’s population. The numbers confirm many people’s worries. The population growth rate plummeted due to the Trump administration’s mass deportation operation.
The country’s population increased by only about 1.8 million between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, compared to 3.3 million a year ago. The current growth rate of 0.52 percent is the slowest since 2020-2021, when it fell to 0.16 percent due to rising deaths in the first year of the pandemic (Figure 1). The 2024-2025 growth rate was half that of the 2023-2024 period, which stood at 0.98 percent, the highest growth rate over the last 15 years.
Figure 1. U.S. annual population growth rate by year
The author’s calculations are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s population estimates.
Decline in Net International Migration
Due to aging in the U.S. population and declining birth rates, growth is driven primarily by net international migration (the number of international migrants arriving minus those leaving). The other component of population change — natural change (births minus deaths) — remained virtually unchanged at 518,858 in 2024-2025. (It was 518,638 in 2023-2024.)
Essentially, if the U.S. does not attract immigrants, it will grow very slowly or decline. The net international migration of nearly 1.3 million in 2024-2025 was less than half of the 2.8 million figure in 2023-2024. The positive net international migration of 1.3 million indicates that more people entered the country than left. The net in-migration reflects how the U.S. Census Bureau counts international migrants — not only the international movement of foreign-born persons (i.e., immigrants) but also U.S.-born individuals who are typically not immigrants.
In fact, Pew Research Center estimates from this past summer showed that, for the first time in more than half a century, more foreign-born people left the U.S. than entered. As such, the overall net number of U.S.-born persons moving between countries, the U.S. mainland and Puerto Rico, and Armed Forces personnel moving between countries, outnumbered the net outmigration of immigrants.
Across the States
The plunging growth rates are reflected across states as well. All but three states (Mississippi, Montana, and South Dakota) experienced declines in their net international migration in the last two years. California (-251,779), Florida (-232,648), Texas (-152,094), and New York (-111,527) had declines of over 100,000 in net international migration between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025. These four states accounted for nearly half (49.1%) of the nation’s overall decline of more than 1.5 million in net international migration.
Thirty states posted declines of 50 percent or greater in net international migration between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 (Figure 2). More than four-fifths (82.4 percent, 14 of 17 states) of states where Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election saw a 50 percent or greater decrease, compared with less than half (47.1 percent, 16 of 34 states) of those where Donald Trump won. This reflects Trump’s disproportionate targeting of Democrat states where he has deployed National Guard and/or ICE forces in places such as Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois, New York, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., much of this under the guise of high crime rates.
Figure 2. States by percentage change in net international migration between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025
The author’s calculations are based on net international migration figures for 2023-2024 and 2024-2025.
Five states actually saw their population decline between 2024 and 2025: California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia, with the latter two also losing population the previous year. All of these experienced declines of 50 percent or more in net international migration between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025. The quintet are bellwethers of population decline.
Conclusions
The U.S. Census Bureau’s population estimates demonstrate that the Trump administration’s mass deportation operation has led to plunging growth rates in the population of the nation and almost all states. The greatest declines in immigration have disproportionately occurred in Blue states where Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election.
The population slowdown is not over. Notably, the 2024-2025 data capture only the first six months (January to June 2025) of Trump’s mass deportation operation. The number of deportations and people being held in detention centers has increased since then, and all signs point to rising numbers.
Given the importance of immigrants to the growth of the U.S. population and workforce, their declining numbers do not bode well for the coming years. With a major aging of its population alongside declines in birth rates, the U.S. is poised to sustain even slower growth and eventual population decline. The impact will be felt throughout the country and all of its institutions.
Rogelio Sáenz is Professor of sociology and demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio. His analysis and opinions expressed here are his own and not those of the University of Texas at San Antonio.
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Julio Ricardo Varela edited and published this edition of The Latino Newsletter.
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