Where Does Cuba Go Next?

MIAMI — More than six decades after the Cuban Revolution, Cuba is facing what some experts describe as its worst economic crisis in modern history.

The government has begun rationing fuel, limiting purchases to no more than five gallons of gasoline and only with U.S. dollars. Airlines have been warned they may not be able to refuel at Cuban airports, prompting some to suspend flights.

Cuba’s long-running economic struggles were already affecting everyday life. Those pressures have intensified sharply since the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, which halted  Venezuelan oil shipments that have long kept Cuba’s energy network running — exacerbating economic and political tensions.

This mounting pressure comes as Cuban authorities this week said that security forces opened fire on a group described by officials as armed Cubans living in the United States, killing four and wounding six others. The government characterized the incident as an attempted terrorist infiltration, according to the Associated Press.

On Friday, President Trump told White House reporters that the United States would maybe “have a friendly takeover of Cuba. We could very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba.”

Against this backdrop, the Trump administration has stepped up diplomatic pressure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has held back-channel talks with Raúl Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, underscoring the elder Castro’s continued influence in Havana.

Some analysts say sustained pressure could destabilize the regime as early as this spring, but experts who study international relations, including Cuba, say a near-term collapse is unlikely.

In Venezuela’s disputed July 2024 presidential election, Edmundo González ran in place of barred opposition leader María Corina Machado. Venezuela’s government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner, but the United States and several Western governments recognized González as the legitimate president-elect.

Maduro remained in power until his capture by U.S. forces, after which the then-vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, was sworn in as acting president.

Andy Gomez, former dean of international studies and former director of Cuban studies at the University of Miami, puts it bluntly: “What has changed in Venezuela? Absolutely nothing. They got rid of Nicolás, but now Delcy’s brother is president of the National Assembly, even though her top people are also indicted by the United States,” Gomez said, referring to Jorge Rodríguez, the powerful lawmaker and sibling of acting president Delcy Rodríguez.

Robert Huish, associate professor of international development studies at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, agrees that expectations of swift change in Cuba are misplaced, but for different reasons. “In Cuba, there’s no real anti-government movement widespread enough to even challenge the authority of them from within.” 

In the 1990s, the collapse of the Soviet Union caused Cuba’s gross domestic product to fall by roughly 35 percent, ushering in what became known as the “Special Period.” And yet, the regime endured.

Even so, Gomez argues that today’s crisis is worse.

“The pressure cooker is mounting to a point that is about to blow up,” he notes.

Huish cautions that economic suffering alone doesn’t topple governments. Mexico, Spain, and Russia have all pledged humanitarian aid, but have provided little fuel due to fears of U.S. sanctions.  Cuba’s longstanding practice of sending doctors and security personnel abroad has historically generated reciprocal support from allies, Huish adds.

“If other countries come through with energy resources to keep the generators going, Cuba will be able to keep going,” he says.

Miguel Díaz-Canel is Cuba’s nominal president, but the 94-year-old Castro is still widely viewed as the country’s true ruler. If the latest reporting is accurate, Rubio is not in direct communication with Díaz-Canel, engaging instead with Castro’s grandson — though Havana has rejected every proposal Washington has made. 

The U.S. trade embargo further complicates matters. Unlike tariffs, the Helms-Burton Act, which keeps the embargo going, cannot be lifted by executive order alone. 

“Even if Trump or Rubio wanted to sell products directly to Cuba, they’d have to go to Congress,” Huish says. “That’s really tricky.” 

Both experts agree the most likely scenario is a weakened but surviving Cuban government — potentially negotiating limited economic concessions while retaining political control. Another possibility is martial law, which Huish says Cuban authorities appear to be preparing for. Gomez concurs that the Cuban military is still “very much intact,” but adds, “once Raúl Castro dies, all bets are off.”

A Maduro-style seizure of Castro appears unlikely, even though U.S. Reps. Carlos Giménez, María Elvira Salazar, and Mario Díaz-Balart — all South Florida Republicans — have framed an indictment as a pressure strategy. Gomez describes the idea of indicting Castro as politically unrealistic. 

“You indict him, and nobody's going to turn him over. And what are we going to do? We're going to go get him?” Gomez says. “We're not going to go get him. There was an indictment prepared in 1993 at the DOJ for Raúl and Fidel Castro for narcotrafficking, just like Maduro. Why not add that to it as well?”

The most immediate risk, both experts warn, is a mass exodus — a “social explosion” and mass migration off the island that could rival the 1980 Mariel Boatlift. 

For now, the world watches. And Cuba — defiant, deteriorating, and deeply complicated — waits.

Caroline Val is a Miami-based journalist and news producer whose work has appeared in Business Insider, Teen Vogue, Hulu, ABC News, Miami New Times, and more.

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