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At the beginning of the year, the Census Bureau generated population estimates that showed that the national and state population growth rate slowed significantly between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025.
The Bureau’s latest population estimates for the nation’s counties over the same period reveal a widespread downturn in population growth across a vast swath of counties. Major declines in net international migration are the primary culprit, reflecting the Trump administration’s mass-deportation campaign, which started in January 2025.
The analysis below is based on the 3,132 counties with Latino residents, out of the country’s 3,144 counties.
Generally, the greatest population slowdown occurred among counties with higher percentages of Latino residents. Figure 1 shows the average percent change in population between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 across five categories, based on the percentage of the county population that is Latino. All five categories experienced slower growth rates in 2024-2025 than in the previous year. However, the relative drops were greatest in counties with 35 percent or more of the population being Latino. In counties where 35.0 to 49.9 percent of the population is Latino, the average 2024-2025 growth rate was slightly more than one-tenth of the average 2023-2024 growth rate. Furthermore, in Latino-majority counties (those where Latinos account for 50% or more of the county population), the average 2024-2025 growth rate was slightly negative at -0.07 percent compared to a 0.47 growth rate a year earlier.
Overall, the percentage of counties experiencing population growth declined over the last two years, from 65.8 percent in 2023-2024 to 59.3 percent in 2024-2025. However, the decline was greatest in counties where Latinos make up 35 percent or more of the total population (Figure 2). Indeed, the percentage of counties with population increases dropped by 23 and by 21.7 percentage points among counties with 35.0-49.9 percent Latinos and among those with 50 percent or higher Latinos, respectively. The percentage declines were much smaller in counties where fewer than 35 percent of their populations were Latino, especially among those with less than 10 percent who were Latino, with a drop of 4.4 percentage points.
Declining International Migration
The population slowdown is due primarily to a major decline in net international migration. In fact, nine of every ten counties had fewer net international migrants in 2024-2025 than in 2023-2024—that is, net outmigration of international migrants (i.e., more migrants leaving the country than entering) in 2023-2024 got worse in 2024-2025 or in-migration (i.e., more migrants entering the country than leaving) decreased in volume or reversed to net outmigration between the two periods.
I based the net international migration data on the number of international migrants entering the country minus the number leaving it over a given period (e.g., June 1, 2024 to June 1, 2025). These numbers include U.S. citizens in the military migrating between nations and persons living in Puerto Rico migrating between the island and the mainland.
The remaining one-tenth of counties had the same number of net international migrants in both years. As such, none of the U.S. counties posted an increase in net international migrants from 2023-2024 to 2024-2025. (I will acknowledge that this could possibly reflect statistical error, especially for counties with relatively small populations.)
The decline in net international migration was widespread across all five county categories, from those with the smallest Latino populations to those with the largest. Even in counties where Latinos accounted for less than 10 percent of the population, 88 percent experienced a decline in net international migration, and the average number of net international migrants decreased by 50 percent between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025. The downward trends in net international migration were even greater across the remaining four categories of counties where Latinos make up 10 percent or more of the overall county population, with approximately 95 to 97 percent of counties experiencing a decline. Latino-majority counties had the largest decline (63.3%) in average net international migration between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025.
County Breakdowns
From July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025, a period that encompasses less than six months into the Trump administration, Los Angeles and Miami — among other cities — were targeted for ICE raids and deportations.
Los Angeles County experienced the largest population decline (-53,934 compared to +16,300 a year earlier) and the largest net international migration decline (-62,934).
Miami-Dade County had the third-largest population decrease (-10,115, compared to +18,633 a year earlier) and the eighth-largest net international migration drop (-24,057).
Cook County (where Chicago is located, -46,058), four counties in the New York metropolitan area (Queens, -54,403; Kings, -40,989; The Bronx, -32,742; and New York, -22,454), two counties in Texas (Dallas, -30,897; and Bexar, where San Antonio is located, -14,557), and Maricopa County (where Phoenix is located, -20,646) round off the list of the 10 counties with the largest decline in net international migration in the 2024-2025 period.
Although population estimates are not yet available to assess the impact of mass deportation beyond July 1, 2025, the evidence we have seen points to a worsening situation. The number of deportations, mostly people who do not have criminal records, keeps rising.
Matters are made still worse with rising labor shortages, especially in industries that depend heavily on immigrant labor. The Trump administration is advocating for the termination of birthright citizenship, while it wages an unpopular war against Iran. For Latino-majority counties, the numbers reflect a reality that is still unfolding.
Rogelio Sáenz is Professor of sociology and demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio. His analysis and opinions expressed here are his own and not those of the University of Texas at San Antonio.
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Julio Ricardo Varela edited and published this edition of The Latino Newsletter.
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